A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
